Exports in good shape, manufacturing remains strong
Release time：
2023-08-04
In the government work report made by Premier Li Keqiang on the 5th, when talking about the development of foreign trade this year, he did not propose specific numerical indicators, but replaced it with "import and export have stabilized and improved." This not only indicates that this year's foreign trade development will focus more on quality, but also reveals that the government pays more attention to the cultivation of export competitiveness.
In the government work report made by Premier Li Keqiang on the 5th, when talking about the development of foreign trade this year, he did not propose specific numerical indicators, but replaced it with "import and export have stabilized and improved." This not only indicates that this year's foreign trade development will focus more on quality, but also reveals that the government pays more attention to the cultivation of export competitiveness.
Taking stock of the main expected goals of economic and social development proposed in the 2015 Government Work Report, only the growth rate of imports and exports is far from reaching the target. China's exports shrank 2.8 percent in dollar terms in 2015, the first annual decline since 2009. Affected by sluggish external demand and falling import and export prices, the country's total import and export value in January was 1.88 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%; exports were 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.6%. This once again put the market under pressure. How to correctly view China's export situation and evaluate the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry has become a hot spot of public opinion.
China's trade in goods still ranks first in the world
"Foreign trade is trade between countries, and it needs to be compared in the background. It needs to be comprehensively compared with multi-dimensional indicators such as quality and quantity." Zhi Luxun, deputy director of the Foreign Trade Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said.
From an international perspective, global trade experienced double-digit negative growth last year, and my country’s export growth rate was still better than that of major global economies and emerging market countries, and the decline was far lower than that of major trading partners and global trade. The export volume still ranks first in the world, and it has maintained this position for three consecutive years since 2013. my country's share in global trade has increased by one percentage point from 12.2% to more than 13%, which is a year of increase in share.
In January, my country's foreign trade import and export still declined. But what needs to be seen is that the import and export of the world's major economies have all declined, and most of them have fallen by more than 10%. It should be said that from the perspective of global trade and economic development, my country's foreign trade in January continued the momentum of 2015.
"We are used to high growth, not negative growth. We think there is a problem with negative growth. In fact, global trade was negative in 2015. Recently, the WTO announced the import and export data of 71 major economies in 2015. Exports fell by 11%, and imports fell by 11%. A drop of 12.6%.” said Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng. He believes that in 2015, China's foreign trade still delivered a satisfactory answer - when global trade is growing, China's growth rate is higher than other major economies; when global trade is declining , the rate of decline in China is relatively low.
据WTO统计，2015年1-11月，美国(-6.8%)、德国(-11.2%)、日本(-9.4%)、韩国(-7.4%)、中国香港(-3.1%)、印度(-17.5%)、南非(-9.5%)、巴西(-16.0%)等国家和地区出口均为负增长，比我出口降幅(-2.5%)分别高0.6至15个百分点。2015年1-11月，我国进出口比美国多566亿美元，其中出口比美国多6672亿美元，继续保持货物贸易大国地位。
“2015年，中国经济对全球经济增长的贡献率在25%以上，在全球贸易持续低迷的背景下，中国的外贸进出口仍然显著好于世界其他主要经济体，本身就是对世界贸易乃至全球经济发展的重要贡献。”高虎城说，“我们也应该调整思路，我国外贸确实到了传统行业要提质增效、新行业要创新发展的阶段，这里面也有一个速度的转换，这也是我们提质增效和创新发展必须要迈过的一个坎。”
“中国制造”竞争力持续增强
中国在世界市场中的份额仍在继续增长。这表明全球需求疲软，而非中国缺乏竞争力。需求对出口的影响往往具有较强的周期性，而本国出口产品竞争力变化对出口的影响则往往具有较强的趋势性。长期以来，出口量相比于出口竞争力获得了更多的关注。但出口量无法回答出口增速放缓究竟是受外需减少等短期冲击影响，还是竞争力走弱的长期趋势这个问题，也很难据此判断调整产业和贸易政策。那么，除了市场份额以外，还有哪些指标可以反映出口竞争力?中国制造的出口竞争力是否在持续提升?
不妨看一组数据：
从贸易方式看，2015年我国一般贸易出口保持增长，已经成为拉动出口的主要力量。2015年，一般贸易出口12173亿美元，增长1.2%，占外贸出口53.5%，比2014年同期提高2.1个百分点;加工贸易出口7978亿美元，下降9.8%，占外贸出口35%，比2014年同期下降2.7个百分点。
从主要产品看，2015年我国机电产品出口保持增长，产品结构进一步优化。2015年，机电产品出口13119.3亿美元，同比增长0.1%，占外贸出口57.6%，比2014年同期提高1.8个百分点。其中，手机、船舶、灯具等出口分别增长8.5%、13.3%、15%。纺织品、服装、鞋等七大类劳动密集型产品共出口4720亿美元，同比下降2.7%，占外贸出口20.7%。
从主要市场看，我国出口市场多元化取得进展，对“一带一路”相关国家出口保持增长。我国在美国、欧元区、英国和日本的份额保持稳定，对美国出口增长3.4%，对东盟出口增长2.1%。对印度、泰国、越南等国出口分别增长7.4%、11.7%和3.8%。
从经营主体看，民营企业出口保持增长，成为出口的主力军。2015年，民营企业出口10295亿美元，同比增长1.8%，占外贸出口45.2%，比2014年同期提高2.1个百分点。
商务部发言人沈丹阳表示，我国外贸结构调整趋势向好，企业转型升级的意愿增强，外贸发展的新动能正在积聚。
彭博经济学家陈世渊也撰文指出，2015年中国在许多新兴经济体的市场份额出现增长，同时也保住了在发达经济体的市场份额。中国出口高度集中在制造业。中国保持了核心产品的竞争力，其主要制造品均保住了相对于其他国家的优势。且中国的出口构成已变得更加多样化和复杂化，为负面冲击提供了缓冲。
根据哈佛大学编制的衡量一国出口多样性和复杂程度的经济复杂性指标，中国2014年在全球的排名为第19位，较2005年的第39位和1995年的第48位显著上升。中国在这个榜单上的排名高于大多数新兴市场国家。然而，鉴于中国仍然落后于大多数发达经济体，这意味着仍有进一步升级和实现出口商品篮子多样化的空间。
出口竞争力关键在产业竞争力
生产成本、贸易成本、生产效率和实际汇率是决定出口竞争力的主要因素。中国外贸竞争力持续提升的原因何在?
Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, believes that: First, China's industrial system is very complete, with a long industrial chain and strong supporting capabilities. Second, China has strong innovation capabilities. Since the international financial crisis in 2008, Chinese enterprises have taken the initiative to adjust. Our investment in education ranges from the country to the family. In addition, the spirit of innovation is also a very strong competitiveness in China. The third is the development of emerging business forms, including the transformation of traditional industries, as well as the innovation of emerging business forms, such as the cross-border e-commerce pilot project in Hangzhou, which added US$10 billion in exports that year. Fourth, the government vigorously streamlines administration and decentralizes power, cleans up various taxes and fees, improves work efficiency, creates a convenient, efficient, and rule-of-law business environment for enterprises, reduces the burden on enterprises, and solves the problems of difficult and expensive financing for enterprises. It took a lot of effort.
Of course, what needs to be seen is that the continuous 30-year high-speed growth of my country's foreign trade is gone forever. In the new era, my country's foreign trade development is undergoing a series of trendy new changes in terms of external demand, competitive advantages, and trade structure. In the past, our comparative advantage and competitiveness mainly relied on relatively low labor costs. However, capital-intensive electromechanical and large-scale equipment are growing at a faster rate, which shows that the comparative advantages of my country's manufacturing industry are changing.
Bai Ming, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the upgrading of foreign trade depends more on the upgrading of industries. This is a gradual process and cannot be accomplished overnight. my country's high-speed rail, nuclear power, etc. have made great achievements in the process of "going out", and the export competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing is improving. But we must also see that there is still a gap between its competitiveness and the standards of a trading power. In general, my country's foreign trade development mode is undergoing a transformation, relying more on the improvement of comprehensive competitiveness in technology, brand, service, etc. to stimulate exports. We should not only vigorously develop and optimize the trade structure and develop e-commerce, but also continue to promote industrial upgrading in combination with the current mass entrepreneurship and innovation. Among them, labor-intensive industries such as clothing and fabrics also have room for improvement.
In 2016, the domestic and international situation faced by China's foreign trade was very complicated and severe, and the downward pressure was still very high. Economists generally predict that China's exports may continue to surpass the world this year, but due to global demand factors, the market for Chinese goods will only grow at a moderate rate.
In this year's government work report, it is proposed to solidly promote the construction of the "Belt and Road", expand international production capacity cooperation, and promote the innovative development of foreign trade. We must base ourselves on the present and focus on the long-term, and accelerate the transformation of the driving force for foreign trade structural adjustment.
