According to the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 8th, in the first 10 months of this year, my country's total import and export value was 19.93 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8.1% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 11.46 trillion yuan, down 2%; imports were 8.47 trillion yuan, down 15.2%; trade surplus was 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 75.3%.
From the perspective of single-month data, customs data shows that my country's import and export in October was 2.06 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9%. Among them, exports were 1.23 trillion yuan, down 3.6%. Previously, my country's exports in July, August and September fell by 9.5%, 6.1% and 1.1% respectively. Imports in October were 833.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 16%, which was slightly narrower than the 17.7% decline in the previous month. This is the 12th consecutive month of negative growth in my country's imports. The decline in imports was significantly greater than that in exports, resulting in a 40.2% increase in the trade surplus in October.
Expert analysis pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of exports has dropped, indicating that exports have not shown a trend of improvement. Weak global demand and turmoil in emerging markets are still the main pressures facing my country's exports. Although the country has launched a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade and the "Belt and Road" project is gradually implemented, due to the weak economic recovery of major developed countries in the world, external demand is still showing a downward trend.
Looking forward to the next two months, the leading index is still not optimistic. According to customs statistics, China's foreign trade export leading index in October fell compared with September, and my country's export managers' index, new export orders index, and export managers' confidence index also all declined. The previously announced October manufacturing PMI new export orders index also fell by 0.5 percentage points.
Bai Ming, a researcher at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that it is foreseeable that the annual foreign trade data is basically hopeless to turn from negative to positive, and we can only hope that the annual decline will be minimized as much as possible.
The "Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation (Autumn 2015)" recently released by the Ministry of Commerce predicts that the scale of China's exports in 2015 will be basically the same as that of the previous year, and the annual imports will show a relatively large decline, which will drag down the overall import and export decline. . However, from a global perspective, the development of China's foreign trade is relatively good, and the decline is lower than the average decline in global trade and the decline in foreign trade of most major economies.